By Susan Frisbie
WCCN Development & Marketing Director
Thursday, May 11th marked the final day in which Nicaragua’s presidential hopefuls could register their party alliances in front of the Supreme Electoral Council. Speculation ran high as to whether or not the political right would settle their differences prior to the deadline. There have been instances of party swapping on the right, most notably former Alliance for the Republic (Apre) presidential candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado joining forces with the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC). However, the alliance that U.S. Ambassador Paul Trivelli had been jockeying for between the PLC and the U.S. government-favored Eduardo Monetealegre did not come to fruition.
The election, therefore, is poised to be one of the most hotly contested political battles in Nicaragua’s democratic history with both the left and the right divided. On the ballot in November will be the perennial Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential candidate Daniel Ortega and FSLN dissident Herty Lewites representing the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) on the left and PLC candidate Jose Rizo and Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance-Conservative Party (ALN-PC) candidate Eduardo Montealegre on the right.
The break-up of the left is perhaps indicative of the leftward swing Latin American politics are taking in general. According to Jorge Castañeda in the May/June edition of Foreign Affairs, there is presently a “tale of two lefts” in Latin America and the left-wing resurgence should not be viewed dogmatically. Castañeda claims “one is modern, open-minded, reformist and internationalist…the other…is nationalist, strident, and closed-minded”. 1
Lewites, the former Mayor of Managua, had once been an FSLN insider close to Ortega but was expelled from the party when he expressed his interest in participating in the FSLN primaries. Lewites said in a recent interview, “Ortega conducts a dictatorship worse than that of Anastasio Somoza…Daniel is anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist, anti-everything. I consider myself a person of the left, but located in the reality of a national, Central American, Latin American, and then world context”.2 While Lewites likens his political views to those of former Chilean president Ricardo Lagos and Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, Ortega has been using his close relationship with Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez to bolster his campaign.
Recently, Ortega accompanied Chavez and Bolivian president Evo Morales to Havana as Morales formally signed on to the Bolivian Alternative for the America’s (ALBA) initiative, which aims to counter the U.S.-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Ortega has vowed to join ALBA if he is elected president. Additionally, Chavez and 53 mayors of the National Association of Municipalities (AMUNIC) have signed an agreement offering oil on credit (with generous repayment terms) to the newly formed Alba Petroleos de Nicaragua (ALBANIC), a move, in light of the recent oil crisis, which could increase Ortega’s popularity. Only time will tell if the current oil crisis will add fuel to Ortega’s campaign or further his critics’ claims that his dealings with Chavez are just populist maneuvers before a critical election.
Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, the U.S. government has shown the PLC the cold shoulder over its continued alliance with Arnoldo Alemán, the factor that most influenced the right’s division.
The PLC along with the FSLN, two of the most organized and powerful political parties in Nicaragua, have also lost much of the Nicaraguan public’s confidence as a result of the infamous ‘pact’ formed between the two parties under the administration of Arnoldo Alemán. This lack of trust is best evidenced by both Lewites and Montealegre performing well in polls, despite not belonging to either of the historically strong political parties of the ‘pactistas’.
The ‘pact’ institutionalized the power of the left-right alliance and protected Ortega from being tried for child-molestation charges (brought by his step-daughter) and Alemán from embezzlement charges. However, current president Enrique Bolaños, who had served as vice-president under Alemán, turned on him and enlisted the support of the FSLN, whose judicial power was assured in the ‘pact’. Alemán was then indicted on corruption charges. He is now serving a sentence of 20 years house arrest. Bolaños’ political flip-flopping left him with few friends in his former party, the PLC. Meanwhile, his alliance with the FSLN was shortlived, many believe upon the urging of the U.S. government.
Bolaños’ anti-corruption agenda was applauded by the U.S. government, but also left him politically vulnerable as the legislative and judicial branches of government are dominated by the FSLN and PLC. Bolaños was essentially forced out of the PLC, which for all intents and purposes is still run by the indicted Alemán. Since then several other influential and presidential hopeful PLC members have left the party, most notably Ivy League educated Montealegre, the technocratic former minister of public finance.
U.S. Ambassador to Nicaragua, Paul Trivelli’s attempts to unite the right have proved futile as the PLC has refused to rescind its support of Alemán. The irony of the U.S. governments campaign to weaken Alemán’s political influence is that it was after the 1990 election that USAID efforts helped bring Alemán to the forefront of right-wing Nicaraguan politics. USAID channeled millions of dollars through new ‘grassroots’, ‘anti-Sandanista’ organizations like Alemán’s right-wing mayors movement. Alemán, who was then mayor of Managua, was a major benefactor of the USAID funds. Now, the U.S. government distaste for all things Alemán have resulted in at least 20 of his PLC allies, friends, and family members having their U.S. visas revoked in recent years.
Jose Rizo, the official presidential candidate of the PLC and former Bolaños vice-president, has had a favorable relationship with the U.S. embassy in the past and has managed to remain free of corruption charges himself. However, his and the PLC’s allegance to Alemán has left the right with two candidates who could split the right-wing vote as much as the Lewites-Ortega divide could the left. This could force elections into a second round run-off.
While critics from the right have complained of the Chavez-Castro connection to the Ortega campaign. Left-wing critics are quick to point out that although the U.S. government continually talks of promoting democracy, it has acted undemocratically by meddling in the Nicaraguan election. Recently, Ambassador Trivelli offered to fund multi-party primary elections for non-Sandinista presidential hopefuls in order to provide one, united right-wing candidate.3 For better or worse, Trivelli’s words have fallen on the PLC’s deaf ears.
Whether it is the heavy hand of the North or the populist pull of the South, Nicaraguan politics are rarely without outside influence. Ortega recently said, “Elections in Nicaragua are not normal elections - they are a confrontation between the US and the Sandinista front”.4 Whether you agree with Ortega’s sentiments about the U.S. or not, one cannot deny that indeed, Nicaraguan elections are anything but normal.
Links:
[1] http://www.wccnica.org/epublish/1
[2] http://www.wccnica.org/epublish/1/33
[3] http://www.wccnica.org/node/163
[4] http://www.wccnica.org/node/165